May 23rd, 2012


Of primary importance

Following up on Obama narrowly edging out a felon in the WV primary, he had trouble in KY and AR. Obama won both contests, but this time he nearly lost to Nobody (KY) and some Occupy Wall Street lawyer dude (AR).

In other news, Ron Paul picked up all of ME's delegates and most of the delegates in MN. Although the caucuses in those states were won by Romney and Santorum, respectively, the delegates were actually chosen at recent conventions. With this tailwind, Paul bids fair to surpass Gingrich to reach third place in the Republican primaries.

Wikipedia has Romney at 972. 1,144 are needed, leaving him to get another 172. TX (May 29) doesn't have that many to award, so Romney will most likely(*) go over the top on June 5th, when CA (a winner-take-all-state) [and NJ, NM, and ND] votes.

(*)A few other states (WA, LA, MO(**)) will have their conventions on June 2nd. Depending on how those turn out, and how well/badly Ron Paul does in TX (a proportional state), it might happen then, instead.

(**) Missouri had both a primary (won handily by Santorum, followed by Romney and Paul) and caucuses (won in a relatively close one with Santorum over Paul, with Romney a distant third). But the pre-state convention district conventions seem to have favored Romney. So I despair of our mickey mouse system.